Predicting and Predictions

Predicting is an intellectual task that people can hone and be truly skillful at. You do not have to have a PhD. to be good at it. Even a house wife can become a good predictor of future events.

Let us consider two interesting possible things that is of importance and value to predict.

(i). A terrorist attack on the US.
      Even the CIA is trying to find the answer as to when it is most likely to happen.
      Will there be an attack on the US in 5 years time? Absolutely.
      Will there be an attack on the US in 4 years time? Definitely.
      Will there be an attack on the US in 3 years time? Most Surely.
      Will there be an attack on the US in 2 years time? Very likely.
      Will there be an attack on the US in 1 years time? Possibly.   
      Will there be an attack on the US in 6 months time? Probably.
      Will there be an attack on the US in 3 months time? Might be.
      Will there be an attack on the US in 3 weeks time? Not likely.

(ii). An assault on the status of US currency as the World's Olympian Reserve Currency?
       Every top reputable economist is wondering om this.
       Will it be in 10 years time? Absolutely surely.
       Will it be in 5 years time? May be
       Will it be in 1 years time? Definitely NOT!

The problem is that today the US has a national debt in excess of 150 trillion. It is bankrupt.
If this assault ever took place the Fed will just print more money to pay of the debt!

Will this manouevre work?

                                           100% - YES

                                             75% - Could work

                                             50% - May be

                                             25% - Just pull it off

                                               5% - absolutely not!

If it does not work, the pain and the woe for the US will be incalculable.